Golden Road

Wartune has a new temporal event, Golden Road. Do not be mistaken by the look, thinking that this is some kind of a mini game. It's just another pay-and-win gamble machine like Magic Pot, Prosperity Wheel or Underground Palace and all the chest events. I have 2 main problem with these:
1.) You don't know what you get when you pay.
2.) It's horribly expensive - ie. the expected value is very low.

In Magic Pot, you get a random item for 65 balens, here, for 50 balens, but no other real difference, except for the pool of items. Actually, you can't even know for sure that the dice is not rigged. For example, when you would need a roll of 5 to get to the rare item, maybe that 5 happens less often than the other numbers :)

The squares have 4 categories:

Skull squares: didn't win anything.

Useless junk: bounty scrolls, legend stones, crystalloids, exploration artifact, insignia, mount whip, runestone, gem pack, fate stone. These are the items which you can get in large number for cheap, so you shouldn't pay for them.

Useful low-value items (worth less than 50 balens, like 20 in average): sepulcrum, mahra, xp scroll, horn, lvl 4 refinement crystal, 

Useful high-value items (worth more than 50 balens, let's say 200 on average): wings, good luck charm, lvl 10 transposer, lvl 6 potion, 999 roses, vulcan's hammer, 

To be able to make a precise calculation, I would need a lot of data, which I don't have at the moment. So my conclusion is: there are just too much junk on that board, and valuable items are part of a second gamble system (chests), as long as we don't know the chances, it is a scam by default. If you did one or more moves, please tell me what you win, I try to collect data, and maybe we know more.

Btw I think the developers made a mistake with this event. If it would cost only 10-20 balen per dice roll, a lot of players would try it. A gamble where you get a lot of junk besides useful items is always lower value, so it must be cheaper.


  1. Hello! I read your blog for several months and find it very helpful. Thank you very much! Your advices are always useful and math-based. :)
    As for the golden road event - I agree that its very expensive and too random when it comes to rewards.
    I did ~15 dice rolls which is 2,5 circles on the board. Got a lot of junk - legendary stones, exp scrolls, bounty scroll packs. Few useful items - mostly sepulcrum. And hit "?" sign once - got wings from it - the only good stuff for 750 balens spent. Mystery boxes gave nothing of use and I didnt have Gem transposers on a playing field.
    Also I noticed, that field changes as you play, 2/3 squares were filled with sepulcrum after my 15 moves (I didn't use "refresh" option). Also skull square desription is wrong - I got 200 gold chests hitting it.