2016/03/10

Sacred gold tree analysis

As I promised earlier, I made an analysis for the broken Wartune event, Sacred Gold tree. I prefer the data I collected myself, but I refused to spend balen on something so broken like this. So this data is based on info I got from friends, and also I checked videos on the net where people used Sacred Gold tree then showed what they have won.

A little explanation of what you see:
You can see the total amount of items people won with 1683 attempts. First number row is amount of the item, second is the total value. On the bottom, you can see the average value per attempt: total of all balen values, divided by number of attempts. Please note I made 2 averages: one with the Odin someone won, and one without. You see there is a huge difference. If you are lucky, and you win a bi-sylph, then you will be happy since you made a "good deal". But if you are unlucky, then each 65 balen attempt yielded a 15 balen value item on average. A very, very bad deal. The stats are insufficient to tell the chances, so you don't know if bi-sylph is 1%, 0,1% or what. But we know many people who used attempts worth 40-60k balens won nothing, and some won one from as low as 20-50 tries.


I noticed an interesting thing when I processed the data, one player had an extremely high amount of mahra, compared to the others, and much lower value in other items. So it is possible that it's true what R2 claims, they "rigged" the gold tree, to give "less rewards" for those who use free wands. But I quite doubt it works the way they claim. Rather, they might award less items for those who never spent balens, compared to those who did.

A few words on item values: with the 2k balen coupon, you can buy chests for 27 balen each, so thats the price I used when calculating item costs, which you can get in hot event exchanges - like compliment / gift / blessing of god, moon rock /dust and evolution emblems. The cost of divinity soul, hard to set here anything realistic. So I said, the average divinity soul an average player can make in areasonable time is level 7. You need 16x lvl 4 div soul (if you make it only during hot events), so I take the lvl 4 div souls BR value, multiplied by 2 and divided by 16 to set price for lvl 4.

I set epic sylph seals to zero balen value since they are worthless. Because when you use these, they have zero sepulcrum in them. So you have to use advanced sepulcrum instead of normal sepulcrum. A complete, total waste. You can make such epic sylphs totally free over the time, saving the evolve materials at the cost of 10.000 adv sepulcrum is a very bad deal.

About Odin seal value: its the chest exchange value you need to get the evolve materials (5000 dust/rock, 1500 emblems) plus the 60k balen. 

Anyway, the conclusion: even if the game weren't dying, and the Sacred Gold weren't hacked over for months, I wouldn't recommend spending balen there. The event is the worst gamble in Wartune's history. The mount/chest gamble was already bad, but this? Some people can throw out 1000 USD on the window and get nothing? Some win a bi-sylph for near free, for which others need 2 fully evolved orange, and stuff worth 127k balens? This is the level of gamble which they should have never added, a true killing blow to Wartune. I can imagine people going to the doctor, crying, repeating "Why I did this? Why I spent so much money on nothing?" 

And the hack itself, not corrected for weeks, maybe months... The tree should have been banned permanently from the game: but it won't happen. Because some ppl still spend money there, so they are happy running it, not thinking of the other consequences.



15 comments:

  1. epic sylph seals can be recicle for 150 advance seps I think, not totaly sure

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    1. Someone can confirm this?

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    2. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    3. yes, u get 150 - 200 advance seps.

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  2. AS USUAL great article explaining carefully what everyone already knew :) :)

    but now we have a balen-proof of our believes!

    PLEASE MAKE AN ARTICLE WHERE U URGE PLAYER NOT TO SPEND ANY MONEY! so wartune will either close down (so we will simply speed up a natural process) or will start changing somehow...

    useless having, n making, such AWESOME posts IF u have a random player spending 1k to be knighthooded.

    as u said....tree wont be removed as long as ppl spend money on it.

    same goes for ALL the rest....... :(

    PS: do u know regret of having spent soooo much money in a double sylph when u could have spent them on the knighthood thingy?? just curious to know ur inner thoughts about it :) (i wish NOT to blame anyone at all! lets make it clear) :)

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    1. I think my last post do urge players not to spend any money :) but this is the decision of every player, I dont think I can have much effect on this. Whales who spent so much will keep spending because their addiction is beyond cure. And if no one spends, the game will shut down (instead of finally solving problems) so better let those whales keep funding :)

      About knighthood or bi-sylph: you do need the bi-sylph to have any success in the game, sadly. It's another thing that since I bought it, other ppl did it as well on my server (some maybe won on tree? some maybe via hack? others via balen? you never know).

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    2. How did they hacked the golden tree? In our wartune version we have the tree too, but i dont know if someone use a hack on this...how can i know if somebody did that?

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    3. The thing is, some things are not connected with each other. As for SGT, availability of a try-button is checked client-side (so, it can be compromised) and rewards for spending do not check if a spending really occur or there were just a press of a button. So, if someone can trick a client that he activated tree 50 times - he can redeem the reward for it.
      This is theory.
      Now, how it works (there are videos on tubes).
      You need a char with low balens (lower than 65). Cheat with some CheatEngine balens displayed (actual balens are on server, you can not cheat them).
      You press "Activate" on SGT. Client thinks that you have the balens and button can be pressed, sending request for a server. Server check the actual balens and reject a request. But it think that you activated a tree. Repeat 2-3-5-10-50-100-200 times.
      Now, you have never actually activated a tree, but server thinks that you activated it 200 times. So, you can redeem rewards. Usually there are like 50+ wands. You can use this wands for actual tree activation.
      This can be done each day SGT is active. There are some minor fixes, like you need to activate tree (just once) with real balens for this to work, bit I don't know the details.

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    4. Wartune, like any game have to check everything server-side, never believe the client. In a program complex enough, it is possible that they forgot to do such a checking. Enough if its only 1 times out of 1000: there are always hackers out there who keep testing this. Do not have doubt, there must be many such hacks, just the public doesn't know about it. Problem was this with hack, it went public.

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    5. No, hack becoming public is not a problem - this is a common practice. There are always some bugs and exploits - it is a natural thing for a program product.
      The problem is, devs don't do anything about this hack. Like hack don't exist or they just do not care.
      Once again. Hack is not a problem. The reaction is.

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    6. Yes, it would be possible to reverse the hack, ban people, remove hacked items etc.

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  3. ps: i see no Normal Sepulcrums....i got TONSS n TONS of them the first times i used that stupid tree....

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  4. yeah there have been people on my sever dropping like 1000 an event on stuff like this, makes the average spender and free players not really care about the game anymore. The sad thing is the people admire these dumbass's that spend this on a game that already refuses to fix known bugs.

    But at the same token R2/kabam are taken advantage of the dumb players willing to spend this much, and honestly you cant blame them.

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    1. my server is s-17 kabam, one family has spent nearly 50k on 4 toons just be number one in rankings. As Ron White said you cant fix stupid.

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    2. Fortunately the number of those who still spend in decreasing rapidly.

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