Sacred gold tree analysis

As I promised earlier, I made an analysis for the broken Wartune event, Sacred Gold tree. I prefer the data I collected myself, but I refused to spend balen on something so broken like this. So this data is based on info I got from friends, and also I checked videos on the net where people used Sacred Gold tree then showed what they have won.

A little explanation of what you see:
You can see the total amount of items people won with 1683 attempts. First number row is amount of the item, second is the total value. On the bottom, you can see the average value per attempt: total of all balen values, divided by number of attempts. Please note I made 2 averages: one with the Odin someone won, and one without. You see there is a huge difference. If you are lucky, and you win a bi-sylph, then you will be happy since you made a "good deal". But if you are unlucky, then each 65 balen attempt yielded a 15 balen value item on average. A very, very bad deal. The stats are insufficient to tell the chances, so you don't know if bi-sylph is 1%, 0,1% or what. But we know many people who used attempts worth 40-60k balens won nothing, and some won one from as low as 20-50 tries.

I noticed an interesting thing when I processed the data, one player had an extremely high amount of mahra, compared to the others, and much lower value in other items. So it is possible that it's true what R2 claims, they "rigged" the gold tree, to give "less rewards" for those who use free wands. But I quite doubt it works the way they claim. Rather, they might award less items for those who never spent balens, compared to those who did.

A few words on item values: with the 2k balen coupon, you can buy chests for 27 balen each, so thats the price I used when calculating item costs, which you can get in hot event exchanges - like compliment / gift / blessing of god, moon rock /dust and evolution emblems. The cost of divinity soul, hard to set here anything realistic. So I said, the average divinity soul an average player can make in areasonable time is level 7. You need 16x lvl 4 div soul (if you make it only during hot events), so I take the lvl 4 div souls BR value, multiplied by 2 and divided by 16 to set price for lvl 4.

I set epic sylph seals to zero balen value since they are worthless. Because when you use these, they have zero sepulcrum in them. So you have to use advanced sepulcrum instead of normal sepulcrum. A complete, total waste. You can make such epic sylphs totally free over the time, saving the evolve materials at the cost of 10.000 adv sepulcrum is a very bad deal.

About Odin seal value: its the chest exchange value you need to get the evolve materials (5000 dust/rock, 1500 emblems) plus the 60k balen. 

Anyway, the conclusion: even if the game weren't dying, and the Sacred Gold weren't hacked over for months, I wouldn't recommend spending balen there. The event is the worst gamble in Wartune's history. The mount/chest gamble was already bad, but this? Some people can throw out 1000 USD on the window and get nothing? Some win a bi-sylph for near free, for which others need 2 fully evolved orange, and stuff worth 127k balens? This is the level of gamble which they should have never added, a true killing blow to Wartune. I can imagine people going to the doctor, crying, repeating "Why I did this? Why I spent so much money on nothing?" 

And the hack itself, not corrected for weeks, maybe months... The tree should have been banned permanently from the game: but it won't happen. Because some ppl still spend money there, so they are happy running it, not thinking of the other consequences.