Wartune event chest: open or exchange?

Since some months, the Wartune event chests drop either a beast soul or a clothing shard in addition to the normal content when yo open it. On average, it seems you get 1 such item from every 3 chest, increasing the chest's value. This would be nice, if the chests other contents wouldn't be complete junk, and the chance to get the mount haven't changed to 1:10000 from 1:1000. But due to these facts, I still used to suggest you do exchange instead of opening. But lets make a closer analysis of this.

When this blog has started, I said 1 BR worth 10 balens at most. In the past 2 years, BR has inflated and became cheaper, so lately I say, the current price is rather 1 BR for 2 balens, because there are many opportunities when you can buy BR at this price (or even lower), see the example below. 

Let's check a mount:

Also it comes with a title:

So the useful stats you get are +4200 MATK, +1500 PDEF, +1500 MDEF, +16000 HP, giving a grand total of 10400 base BR value. You can also refine it for 5 star, which is free, so you can add that +900 BR to this sum. And don't forget the +20 max attribute level. However, to turn that into BR, you need mount whips, so I would rather count it into the whips's value, not here.

So this mount is 11300 BR, which is 22600 balens. You needed 800 event chests to get it. One chest is 27 balen value (this is the normal price, purchased 129 at once with a 2k coupon), costing 21600 balens - a fair trade.

But this was an expectional price. Right now, they sell the +200 mount for 1000 chest. An obviously worse trade (although you could get snowmans chests at discounted price with new years sales).

Now let's see a normal +50 mount:

Fully refined, it gives 400 ATK, 500 PDEF, 500 MDEF, 2000 HP, for a total of 1800 BR, worth 3600 balens. Such a mount is sold for 600 beast souls, so 1 beast soul worth 6 balens. 

Now let's examine clothing. A set of A clothing, refined to 3 star each piece, gives only 432 useful BR, quite neglectable. A set of S is better, but still only 864. You can get 1-2 pieces to 4, or even 5 stars, but in the end, it will be just approx. 500 / 1000 BR. So a cloth A set worth 2000 balens, a cloth S 4000 (if you consider the fashion cores free). 210 box for a full set is 5670 balens, so buying chests for balens just to get a S cloth doesn't worth it. However, free chests are still the best exchange for such cloth sets. Sets with a title are different story:

This is pure +8000 BR, an awesome boost. So you should collect all cloth sets with title, much better value than mounts. And now to the value of cloth shards. You need 100 to get a set. In an exchange they cost you 210 chests. So in the worst case, if you have to buy the chests, it will cost you 5670 balens (but most of the time, you get some free chest, 100 or more). So obviously, cloth shards are much more valuable than beast souls, even 50 balen is not unreasonable. There is just one limiting factor: you can get most titled cloth sets for free chests, you don't need that much cloth shards. For this reason, I don't recommend doing golden road to get more.

Now let's say the contents of the average chests lately:
1.) Junk (eudaemon stuff, sepulcrum, gold, halidom stuff etc)
2.) Ultra-rare mount (might worth 20k balens, but chance 1:10000, increasing chest expected value only by 2 balens)
3.) Cloth. Technically, it's near useless, sine the cloth's BR comes from the title, you can't get title without wing, and wing is not in the chest. Also, drop rate varies greatly.
4.) Beast soul or cloth shard, 1/3 chance. If it is a beast soul, then you get a chest of 4 balen value! Don't even think about opening chests with beast souls for this reson. On the other hand, if it's a cloth shard chest, it can be like 18 balens value. Almost worth opening.

Here is another model: to get a full cloth set, you need 210 chests. If you want to get 100 cloth shard to get the same set, you need to open like 300 chests, and wait 3-4 month until you can exchange for that set. You will also have a micro-chance to open a mount, and get some junk, but still, direct exchange is better deal. Of course this can change if they add useful content to a chest (like adv sepu and mahra).