Clothing synthesis and epic spender

Despite my warning about the Wartune clothing synthesis, still many people enjoy participating in this event. Here is a short math for you:

One level 5 cloth requires 2x level 4. If you try it without good luck charm, and the success chance is 50% (something like now), you actually need 3x level 4. To make those, you need 9x level 3 cloth. 

There are 3 ways to make level 3:

• Make a level 2 cloth from a level 1 cloth and a fashion core, then keep trying to upgrade with a fashion core (requires an average of 3). Total cost: 1 cloth, 4 fashion cores (5 piece in total)
• Make 2x level 2 cloth, and combine it with a good luck charm. Total cost: 2 cloth, 2 fashion cores, 1 good luck charm. (5 piece in total)
• Make 2x level 2 cloth, and combine them without a good luck charm. Sadly, the fail rate is quite bad now, can be as low as 50%. Total cost (approx): 3 cloth, 3 fashion cores. (6 piece in total)

Whichever is the best, depends on what you have in reserve.

Cloth: this is a scare resource lately, if you still have some boxes saved up from some events, its good.

Fashion cores: the ways to get these (fishing and wild shop) have been removed. You can still get one from devotion daily, and if you do spire nm, you can get 1-2 more, but still a low number, just enough to make your cloth refines.

Good luck charm: currently there is no way to farm it. You either pay for it (ridiculous price) or get it in the cloth event. And you need to build a large stockpile of good luck charm so one day you can make a high level wing - so I don't recommend method 2.)

Regardless of method, you need 5-6 piece of cloth/core to make one level 3. So to make a level 5, you need about 45 pieces. And now, lets see what's your reward for this grand achievement:

(+1 one random cloth). So for using 45 pieces, you get back 8 pieces and 2 chests. Counting a chest equal to 1 piece, you lost 35 pieces. Pretty bad deal. But maybe you can win someting at making level 6?

(+2 random cloth), You can make level 6 with luck charm, or without. If you take a risk, you might fail 50% of the time, so you need 3 x lvl 5 cloth, whih cost you 105 pieces, while you win 21 pieces. Your total cost is 84 pieces! If you use luck charms (need 8 for a lvl 6), then your total loss is "only" 57 pieces. But it includes your luck charm pool decreasing.

We can continue this table, but I tell you, there is no point where it turns positive.

Previously, when fail rate without luck charm was only 10%, you could make it almost equal. Even earlier, where you could claim prizes for all previous levels, AND they awarded more cloth, it was vastly positive.

Of course, besides collecting and losing these pieces, there is an extra "bonus": getting better cloth. But the +2 rage is really nothing. Only wings give useful bonus, but there, multiply your loss by 5: what brokers lost in 2008 will pale in comparison to your loss. Then better buy a mount, it's the same BR and cost less.

So what's the good strategy with cloth synthesis?
Right now, its quite simple: don't do it. In the future, either the game closes down, nothing changes, or they add some cheaper way to get cores and charms. Either way, currently the best strat is to ignore this event, ruined along with many others.

For last word, I wanted to show another fine example of bad event management:

That's right. Even big spender events are messed up - the events which are supposed to generate income for them - because the event designer is such a dumb idiot to top off a bag of junk with a chest which expired a week ago and cannot be exchanged for anything. Or how about this one ("epic" spender starting tomorrow):

Yeah, tree-shaped chest, expired like a month ago, rofl :)

So the problem is not that they care about the money - not at all. The problem is that  the people who are managing Wartune right now (not R2, they are just hosting it; the guys at 7road) lack the skill to do their job. Can't do anything right. Not events, not developments, not a patch, not a compensation, not an exploit recovery, not even spender events.