The gamble factor

I played another Chinese game for a year, called Business Tycoon online. The basic game was good and addictive. But it was a license, and the licensing company couldn't correct any of the bugs in the original code, and even added more and more. Also, the lag was unbearable after a time.

This was the first time I met with the Chinese "you can spend as much as you want" and the "gambles where you don't know the chances but we can change them anytime" game design strategies.

The Chinese gambe factor has one single goal. That you spend MUCH MORE money what you would otherwise.

Take, for example, the last Wartune event. You could get a Hades sylph for 480 King Souls. You need to open 960 chests for 480 King Souls, so that's 960 x 39 = 37.440 balens, aka 374 USD. A ridiculous price, isn't it?  But people say - I still buy some boxes, maybe I get lucky. He buys 100 box - no luck. So he buys another 100 - still no luck. He keeps buying, a classic gambling symptom.

There is rougly 0.2% chance to get a Hades sylph, so you need an average of 500 boxes. That's still less than 960. Some people get it after 10 or 100 boxes. But the forums are full with complaints from people who didn't get it even after opening 600.

Maybe you heard about the classic experiment, where you have 2 options. You either get one million dollars. Or you can flip a coin. If it's head, you get 10 million dollars. If it's tails, you get nothing. The expected value of your winnings is 5 times more in the later case. Still, most people would choose the firs option.

But here, you don't have the first option. You can just keep flipping the coin.

So here is my advice about ANY gambles in Chinese games (not only Wartune).

If there is any kind of gamble, first, try to figure out the chances. Do not rely on what the publishers say. Find players who already played the gamble, and collect statistics from them. When you do have enough information, calculate the expected winnings, and make a decision. You can find a good example of how to calculate it
at the end of this article.

If you are not sure of the chances, or the numbers look bad, do not enter it. Not even if you desire the reward - remember, your desire is nothing just gambling addiction, which is harmful to your health and your wallet. And the item you desire will be available again later on, probably at a cheaper price.

Personally, I never liked gambles in such games. If I want to gamble, I play poker, there I at least know the chances :) In my other favorite game, Doomlord, there are no random packs, and if a chance is included in an event, that chance is always public and reliable. But it is an European game.

1 comment:

  1. Dang,.. I really gotta try DoomLord then.. dunno what I have been playing all these while o_O