January events / chest analysis

During Christmas, we have seen a really massive series of events in Wartune. We were promised to see the biggest sale of the year. When I read that first, I thought we will get some nice discounts. We did not, but they really sold different things and events each day. Which resulted for me (and prolly for you as well) missing on important rewards. But it was truly intense.

Now things seem to slow down again, a 16 days chest event is coming up. Of course there is a new tweak we have seen already in December. In the past year, chests always had a shard item (50% chance), 4 useful or semi-useful common items (each 12% probability) and 3-4 rare items (0.1-1%), But this chest is new. A lot more items, and most of them is total junk. Gold, equip shard, luck stone, star sand, I don't think there is any Wartune player who would pay for those. And you don't want to open either moonlights or glint of magic for 39 balens.
Unfortunately, we don't even know the probabilities yet. The cloth are prolly 1%, and the mount is the usual 0.1%. 
The divinity soul and the coin of ancestry is good - but we don't know the probabilities yet.
Also an interesting twist is that you always get a "1st calendar page", and sometimes you get a "7th page". You can exchange 5x "1st page" for one "7th page". And most rewards require submitting both resources, so there will be some toying around with these.

My primary advice is that DO NOT buy these chests for balens. Gather some free chests first, and see what's coming out of them. Although the contents are either junk or super-rare, the pages can be exchanged for some useful stuff.


Don't go for anything that you can get by many other ways. These are the junks, on which you spend only your last remaining 1-3 pages. But whip is more limited now, especially to newer servers, so you might consider buying that.
4 whip: 1 page worth 8 balens = 8 balen / page

You will probably need the 5x page1 to page7 exchange, but do it only when you already decided what you are going to buy.
I do not recommend buying gear shards. Everyone will have these maxed pretty fast for free from sylph arena.
The gem seems overpriced, these packs give usually only lvl 3 gems, which value like 2 balens.
The soul seals are overpriced too, you get 20 from one battleground, and the cost is, 74 calendar pages, giving you like 1.35 balen/page.

Better take a closer look here. We can get page7 for 5x page1. So let's examine these exchanges:
25 mahra: 65 pages worth 75 balens = 1.15 balen/page
5 enchant pack: 110 pages worth 50 balens = 0.45 balen/page
30 hoof: 120 pages worth 240 balens = 2 balens/page
cloth: 138 pages worth 300 balens = 2.17 balens/page

The +40 mount (valued at 8000 balens) is 200 x page1 and 200x page7: being your best deal at 6.6 balens/page. But you can't get it without buying chests.





So here is the strategy I recommend to follow:
Do not buy chests. Wait how many you got for free as usual, and keep track of chances.
If you are very far from maxing out your stables, do not exchange page1s to page7, but use them to buy whips. Whips are common, yeah, but still the best BR you can get here. (But if a soul crystal to whip event comes around again, don't blame me, anything is possible.)
Otherwise, buy what you need most, probably it's mahra or the cloth.