Clothing synthesis

I wanted to write an article about these clothing synthesis events since a long, now it is a perfect time. The math is a little complicated, I will try to make it as simple as possible.

The current clothing-combo event has 3 components:

1. Buying old-fashioned packs and examining their value.
2. Identifying clothes and seeing how much you win there.
3. Combining clothes and claiming tailor rewards.

First of all, value of items:

Cloth packs as such are sold for 900 balens usually, so for simplicity, we can say one cloth worth 300 balens (although BR-wise, a S cloth can worth as much as 1000).

Fashion cores were sold for 170, 200 and 270 balens, so we can say price is approx. 200 balens.

Good luck charms, you could get them only once for 170, let's hope we see more sales in the future. Right now, you can't really get them cheaper than like 340 (in market). Unfortunately, this doesn't mean they worth more than a fashion core, especially since the needed amount for synthesis was increased, and unlike cores, you can't use them to exchange for BR. So I would not give more for them than for cores, 200 balens.

Old leather. You can exchange 20 old leather for 3 clothes, so one leather worth approx. 45 balens. Please note if you don't need any of the clothes, old leather worth 0. If you need only 1-2 cloth from any given pack, old leather worth only 15-30 balens.



Old-fashoned pack
So let's see how much a pack worth:
I use the chances listed on wartune.tv (they seem to be accurate).

old leather, 30% chance:  0.3 x 0-45 = 0-13.5  balens
100k gold, 30% chance: 0.3 x 2 = 0.6 balen
fashion shard, 20% chance: 0.2 x 20 = 4 balens
fashion core, 7% chance: 0.07 x 200 = 14 balens
luck charm, 7% chance: 0.07 x 200 = 14 balens
1M gold, 2% chance: 0.02 x 20 = 0.04 balen
Clothes, 1% chance each. This is tricky. You can find a total of 11 different clothes in the packs. You have to count how many you need still. For example, I need 7, so the expected value of clothes in the packs for me is 0.01 x 300 x 7 = 21 balens. If you have 0, obviously it's 0. If you need all 11, it's 0.01 x 300 x 11 = 33 balens.

So the total value:
0-13.5  + 0.6 + 4 + 14 + 14 + 0.04 + 0-33 = 32.6-79.1 balens.

As you see, if you have all the clothes, this is not a great deal. But if you miss some or all, its a must buy deal. Please note that while you are buying, the value decreases! As soon as you have all clothes from drops + you can buy the remaining for old leather, you should stop. A recharge of max. 30 USD would be enough here to get everything.

Cloth identify

This is the third part where you can win a lot. Hopefully you saved already a bunch of clothes (your wedding cloth, and the stuff you bought for wedding shards). Also you can get 0-11 clothes from opening the above packs. Depending on your luck, you can harvest a bunch of additional old-fashioned packs and fashion cores. Count these packs in when deciding how much you gonna buy! Don't forget that for this event, not only identify counts, but cloth refine as well. You will have a lot of extra cores, use them, that's where you gain the BR anyway besides identify!



Tailoring event
First of all, I do not recommend using fashion cores to make lvl 3 items or higher. The last time I tried, failure rate was extremely high even at lvl 3 combines. You make a better deal by combining 2 clothes and using luck charm.

Please note, that when you make a lvl 5 item, you can claim the rewards for making lvl 3 and lvl 4 as well. So the slower you go here, the more reward you claim - but it takes months, not everyone has that patience :)

Lvl 3 cloth: this requires 2 lvl 1 cloth, 2 fashion cores and 1 luck charm. The reward is 1 fashion core, a pack, and 10 mount whips, and 150k gold. If we suppose you did not buy cloth just for this, and you have them already anyway "for free", your total gain here is -337 balens.

lvl 4 cloth: requires 2 lvl 3 cloth, and 2 luck charm. The reward is 400K Gold, fashion core x2, luck charm x1, pack x2. If we count only the luck charms, your total gain here is +286 balens.

lvl 5 cloth: requires 2 lvl 4 cloth, 4 x luck charm. Reward is 800K gold, fashion core x4, good luck charm x2, pack x5. If we don't count the cloth, your gain is +611 balens.

As you see, you make a better and better deal. But ONLY if you had free cloth, and did not combine multiple of the lower levels to be ableto make it. Please note that when combining clothes, there is a chance you get something you don't get, which gives extra BR (and worth) via identify.

Examples:
Example 1. you have a bunch of level 1 helmet, fashion cores, and 2 luck charm. You should make 2 lvl 2 helm, then a lvl 3 helm. You should not go for lvl 4, since you do not get the bonus for the lvl 3 again, so your loss would be -674 vs +286.

Example 2. You have a lvl 3 helm which you made during previous tailoring, and all he above. You should make a lvl 3 and a lvl 4 helm.

Example 3. You have a lvl 4 helm you made during the previous synthesis, you also wear a lvl 4 helm, and you have a bunch of lvl 1. You should make only one lvl 5. You will get the reward for lvl 3 and lvl 4 as well. Save the lvl 1 for the next event.

Please note that you should NOT make cloth combines just to upgrade your cloth. +2 rage worth nothing.

Wings 

Wing are an expensive deal. Lvl 3 cost 5, lvl 4 cost 10, lvl 5 cost 20, lvl 6 40 good luck charms. As long as good luck charms don't selll especially cheap, and you can't get free wings, wing tailoring doesn't worth the deal at higher level. Make a level 3 wing first tailoring. Then make a lvl 3 next tailoring. Then make a lvl 4 one month later, etc. but ONLY IF you have the good luck charms from some event (don't buy them for 400 balens piece).