Cloth event analysis

As you know, the cloth system in Wartune will undergo a drastical change. There will be no more separate levels for each cloth, there will be only a combined cloth level. A level 1 cloth will worth 300 XP, a level 2 600 XP, a level 3 1200 XP etc. Cored and good luck charms will be 200 XP. Cosmos described the whole system perfectly, I don't want to repeat the detailed info you can find there. There is a cloth synth event currently going on. I just want to help you with the math: does it worth making items for this event, or just wait for the cloth changes?



Cost for making different levels of cloth
A level 2 cloth requires a level 1 cloth and a fashion core. Success chance is 100%. This cost you 500 cloth XP, and will yield you 600 - so you should make all your level 1 cloth into level 2 before patch, if nothing else.

A level 3 cloth can be made from 2 level 2 cloth. That's 1000 XP. if you don't use good luck charm, you have approx. 20% chance to fail. So actually it will cost 1250 XP. Or, you can use a good luck charm, in this case your cost will be 1200 XP. Also, you can use cores to upgrade the level 2 cloth. In this case, you need an average of 3 core for success: so your cost is 1100 XP. Obiously, this is the best method to make a lvl 3 cloth.

A lvl 4 cloth requires 2 x lvl 3 (2200 XP). Without good luck charm, your cost is 2200 x 1.25 = 2750. With 2 good luck charms, it's 2600. Using cores you have a very minimal chance, I don't recommend that at this level.

A lvl 5 will cost you 2 x lvl 4 (5200 XP). If you risk, with 20% fail chance your average cost will be 6500. With 4 good luck charms, it will be 6000 XP. It is surprising it is better to make with good luck charms? Well, before the new system, getting lvl 1 cloth was much easier than getting a luck charms. So in that case, you better risked. But now the situation has changed.

Cost to make lvl 6  is 13,600 XP, cost to make lvl 7 is 30,400, cost to make lvl 8 is 67,200, cost to make lvl 9 is 147,200, and for lvl 10, it's 320,000. (if you have that much good luck charms at all).

The rewards
Now let's check out the rewards. In the new system, you get 4800 XP for your level 5 cloth, but here it cost you 6000 to make. However, you will get as reward 2x luck charm and 5x fashion core, and 1 chest, worth ath least 1700 XP, and you get 2 additional chests. So it worth making it.

A level 6 will require 2x lvl 5, and luck charm worth 1600 in addition. The Xp you get back is 3600 at least, plus 4 chests.

 The same applies to every following level. However, please note that this applies only if you don't have to make lvl 5+ clothing without getting prize. So my suggestion is, if you have enough good luck charms, do the event, bu do only one of each level at most each day.

About wings...
Making wings require 5x more materials. However, the reward is only twice as much. So I do not recommend making wings.

Clothing synthesis and epic spender

Despite my warning about the Wartune clothing synthesis, still many people enjoy participating in this event. Here is a short math for you:

One level 5 cloth requires 2x level 4. If you try it without good luck charm, and the success chance is 50% (something like now), you actually need 3x level 4. To make those, you need 9x level 3 cloth. 

There are 3 ways to make level 3:

• Make a level 2 cloth from a level 1 cloth and a fashion core, then keep trying to upgrade with a fashion core (requires an average of 3). Total cost: 1 cloth, 4 fashion cores (5 piece in total)
• Make 2x level 2 cloth, and combine it with a good luck charm. Total cost: 2 cloth, 2 fashion cores, 1 good luck charm. (5 piece in total)
• Make 2x level 2 cloth, and combine them without a good luck charm. Sadly, the fail rate is quite bad now, can be as low as 50%. Total cost (approx): 3 cloth, 3 fashion cores. (6 piece in total)

Whichever is the best, depends on what you have in reserve.

Cloth: this is a scare resource lately, if you still have some boxes saved up from some events, its good.

Fashion cores: the ways to get these (fishing and wild shop) have been removed. You can still get one from devotion daily, and if you do spire nm, you can get 1-2 more, but still a low number, just enough to make your cloth refines.

Good luck charm: currently there is no way to farm it. You either pay for it (ridiculous price) or get it in the cloth event. And you need to build a large stockpile of good luck charm so one day you can make a high level wing - so I don't recommend method 2.)

Regardless of method, you need 5-6 piece of cloth/core to make one level 3. So to make a level 5, you need about 45 pieces. And now, lets see what's your reward for this grand achievement:

(+1 one random cloth). So for using 45 pieces, you get back 8 pieces and 2 chests. Counting a chest equal to 1 piece, you lost 35 pieces. Pretty bad deal. But maybe you can win someting at making level 6?

(+2 random cloth), You can make level 6 with luck charm, or without. If you take a risk, you might fail 50% of the time, so you need 3 x lvl 5 cloth, whih cost you 105 pieces, while you win 21 pieces. Your total cost is 84 pieces! If you use luck charms (need 8 for a lvl 6), then your total loss is "only" 57 pieces. But it includes your luck charm pool decreasing.

We can continue this table, but I tell you, there is no point where it turns positive.

Previously, when fail rate without luck charm was only 10%, you could make it almost equal. Even earlier, where you could claim prizes for all previous levels, AND they awarded more cloth, it was vastly positive.

Of course, besides collecting and losing these pieces, there is an extra "bonus": getting better cloth. But the +2 rage is really nothing. Only wings give useful bonus, but there, multiply your loss by 5: what brokers lost in 2008 will pale in comparison to your loss. Then better buy a mount, it's the same BR and cost less.

So what's the good strategy with cloth synthesis?
Right now, its quite simple: don't do it. In the future, either the game closes down, nothing changes, or they add some cheaper way to get cores and charms. Either way, currently the best strat is to ignore this event, ruined along with many others.

For last word, I wanted to show another fine example of bad event management:

That's right. Even big spender events are messed up - the events which are supposed to generate income for them - because the event designer is such a dumb idiot to top off a bag of junk with a chest which expired a week ago and cannot be exchanged for anything. Or how about this one ("epic" spender starting tomorrow):

Yeah, tree-shaped chest, expired like a month ago, rofl :)

So the problem is not that they care about the money - not at all. The problem is that  the people who are managing Wartune right now (not R2, they are just hosting it; the guys at 7road) lack the skill to do their job. Can't do anything right. Not events, not developments, not a patch, not a compensation, not an exploit recovery, not even spender events. 

Cloth synthesis advanced guide

I already wrote a guide about cloth synthesis a half year ago. I will try to make a more detailed one now, which can help you go as high as level 9 – with using minimal balens, or none at all.

Currently, I have lvl 9 helm and weapon, and lvl 8 armor and wing. I would love to say I never spent balen on clothing. But I did buy the 900 balen cloth packs a few times, and I spent about 4k balen on the old leather packs. But thats it.

I see many people doing the cloth synthesis the wrong way. When the event comes, they use all of their resources: try to go as high as they can. This is not how you have to do it. The goal of cloth synthesis is NOT getting better clothes. The bonus you get from higher level cloth is neglectable. The goal is to get the REWARD for the synthesis. And in that term, only one thing matters: you must get more than spent. A LOT more, preferably.

Cloth synthesis reward usually include cloth, fashion core, good luck charm, and event chest. The cloth, the core and the charm you can use to make more cloth. So the only real gain here is the event chest.

To put it simple, your goal should be to start each cloth synthesis event with at least the same number of cloth, core and charm as the previous one. This will ensure you have a steady income of free event chests.

The key aspect of cloth synthesis is that when you make a high level cloth, you can claim the reward for making all the lower ones too. This means you have to go as slow as possible. Let me show you an example.

Let's suppose you already have a level 7 cloth, and enough material to make another level 7 – so you can end up upgrading your cloth to level 8. If you do it, you can claim all rewards from lvl 4 to lvl 8. However, you can do this differently. You can make only a level 6 cloth, and claim rewards 4-6. The next cloth event, you can make another level 6, and claim rewards 4-6 again. On the third cloth event, you can simply combine the two lvl 6, and claim rewards 4-7. And on the 4th, make the lvl 8 cloth, and claim rewards 4-8. So using the same components, you could get at least twice more reward – but it took some time.

There is a cloth event once every 2-3 weeks, but sometimes, it happens even more often. I think in the past year, there was, like 25-30 cloth event. So if you did only a level 5 or 6 cloth each time, you can have a level 9 easily now. And you get 20 times more reward as the whale who made his lvl 9 cloth on the first occasion.

Of course you have to find the balance, and that's why I don't give exact numbers what to do each event. It heavily depends on how much fashion core and good luck charm you have. At start, you can make only level 3-4 clothes, but as the combo begins to work, you can go further. There is one main principle: at the end of each event, you must have at least as much core/charm/cloth as much you started with. If you have less, you did something wrong, and you will have trouble during the next synthesis event.

There are 2 more not-so-public-but-legal tricks I wanna show you about cloth synthesis.

With the first one, you can save a lot of good luck charms. Please note when you make a combine, you can choose to use good luck charm or not. If you decide not to, the chance will be „Fair” - even for high level clothing. In this case, fair really means fair – like 80-90%. I have seen people gamble and succeed even with combining lvl 7-8 clothes without charm, but I advise against this. Because if you fail, you lose a lot. You should risk it only if there is no chance to collect the required number of charms. But, otherwise, feel free to use this trick for medium level combines. It is especially useful for wings, where it requires an astronomical amount of charms. I do not use good luck charms when I combine lvl 2 and lvl 3 wings. When I have a lot of wings, I don't use either for lvl 4. For cloth, the 2-4 luck charm cost is so cheap at lower levels, it is cheaper than losing the clothes/cores I used. So for cloth, I usually skip good luck charm only at lvl 4-5 combines (and only if I have lot of cloth/cores).

The second trick is the „abysmal” chance when you try to ugprade cloth by using fashion cores. Actually, it seems the abymsal chance is not going lower than 1%. I don't go into the math, but when you want to upgrade a lvl 7 or 8 cloth, it is cheaper to gamble with fashion cores than going the old fashioned way (even with not using charms for some combines). I even have some statistics: when upgrading from lvl 7 or 8, out of 964 attempts, 7 was successful. So the 1% seems accurate. But be warned: this is a real gamble. It is possible that you get an upgrade after 5 tries. It is possible that you won't get it after 400. For this reason, I recommend the following strategy: try the upgrade until you have only 50-60 fashion cores left. That's still enough to make an item the old, safe way, and claim some of the prizes. And don't forget, they can change this anytime. Already the chance lately seemed to be less than before.

Atoll Conqueror's Pack analysis

Here is my usual analysis of the current Wartune gamble, "Atoll Conqueror's Pack". Please note that although the name and content suggests that this pack has something to do with sylph, there is no track of divinity shards, as if the developers forgot about this item (or, rather, want to work up the price of it when they finally add it).

What's the best exchange?

1 balen / shard

6 balens / shard

1.6 balen / shard

25 balens / shard

20 balens / shard

20 balens / shard*

(* normally, I assign 300 balen value for A-B clothes they sell in packs, but these are S quality so I assigned double price) 

25 balens / shard

30 balens / shard

As you see, most exchanges are of similar value (just stay away from kyanite / resist shards) so you can't make a bad deal here. However, I would still advise against fashion cores. These you can get for free from the wild shop, and they are really cheap from "old leather" type events. So I would go for clothes first from the free boxes, and if they give so many that you still have shards to spend, get sepulcrum.

Now let's see if it's a good deal to buy extra boxes for balens so you can have the mount as well:

spirit shard: 25 x 0.5 = 12.5 balens

80k gold: 1.6 x 0.12 = 0.192 balen

2x sepulcrum : 20 x 0.12 = 2.4 balens

2x mahra: 10 x 0.12 = 1.2 balen

3x mount whip: 6 x 0.12 = 0.72 balen

1M gold: 20 x 0.007 = 0.14 balen

100x runestone: 200 x 0.007 = 1.4 balen

100x mahra: 500 x 0.007 = 3.5 balens

chimera: 8000 x 0.001 = 8 balens

expected value: 12.5+0.192+2.4+1.2+0.72+0.14+1.4+3.5+8 = 30.052 balens

A very bad deal for 39 balens. Do not buy. Not even if you are a cloth collector: remember, the cloth will be for sale later anyway.

If they would have included divinity shards in either the atoll pack or the exchange (instead of having it as a rare? drop in the limited 25 balen boxes), at least some people would buy this pack. But this way, Wartune will remain without significant income for another 12 days...

Clothing synthesis

I wanted to write an article about these clothing synthesis events since a long, now it is a perfect time. The math is a little complicated, I will try to make it as simple as possible.

The current clothing-combo event has 3 components:

1. Buying old-fashioned packs and examining their value.
2. Identifying clothes and seeing how much you win there.
3. Combining clothes and claiming tailor rewards.

First of all, value of items:

Cloth packs as such are sold for 900 balens usually, so for simplicity, we can say one cloth worth 300 balens (although BR-wise, a S cloth can worth as much as 1000).

Fashion cores were sold for 170, 200 and 270 balens, so we can say price is approx. 200 balens.

Good luck charms, you could get them only once for 170, let's hope we see more sales in the future. Right now, you can't really get them cheaper than like 340 (in market). Unfortunately, this doesn't mean they worth more than a fashion core, especially since the needed amount for synthesis was increased, and unlike cores, you can't use them to exchange for BR. So I would not give more for them than for cores, 200 balens.

Old leather. You can exchange 20 old leather for 3 clothes, so one leather worth approx. 45 balens. Please note if you don't need any of the clothes, old leather worth 0. If you need only 1-2 cloth from any given pack, old leather worth only 15-30 balens.



Old-fashoned pack
So let's see how much a pack worth:
I use the chances listed on wartune.tv (they seem to be accurate).

old leather, 30% chance:  0.3 x 0-45 = 0-13.5  balens
100k gold, 30% chance: 0.3 x 2 = 0.6 balen
fashion shard, 20% chance: 0.2 x 20 = 4 balens
fashion core, 7% chance: 0.07 x 200 = 14 balens
luck charm, 7% chance: 0.07 x 200 = 14 balens
1M gold, 2% chance: 0.02 x 20 = 0.04 balen
Clothes, 1% chance each. This is tricky. You can find a total of 11 different clothes in the packs. You have to count how many you need still. For example, I need 7, so the expected value of clothes in the packs for me is 0.01 x 300 x 7 = 21 balens. If you have 0, obviously it's 0. If you need all 11, it's 0.01 x 300 x 11 = 33 balens.

So the total value:
0-13.5  + 0.6 + 4 + 14 + 14 + 0.04 + 0-33 = 32.6-79.1 balens.

As you see, if you have all the clothes, this is not a great deal. But if you miss some or all, its a must buy deal. Please note that while you are buying, the value decreases! As soon as you have all clothes from drops + you can buy the remaining for old leather, you should stop. A recharge of max. 30 USD would be enough here to get everything.

Cloth identify

This is the third part where you can win a lot. Hopefully you saved already a bunch of clothes (your wedding cloth, and the stuff you bought for wedding shards). Also you can get 0-11 clothes from opening the above packs. Depending on your luck, you can harvest a bunch of additional old-fashioned packs and fashion cores. Count these packs in when deciding how much you gonna buy! Don't forget that for this event, not only identify counts, but cloth refine as well. You will have a lot of extra cores, use them, that's where you gain the BR anyway besides identify!



Tailoring event
First of all, I do not recommend using fashion cores to make lvl 3 items or higher. The last time I tried, failure rate was extremely high even at lvl 3 combines. You make a better deal by combining 2 clothes and using luck charm.

Please note, that when you make a lvl 5 item, you can claim the rewards for making lvl 3 and lvl 4 as well. So the slower you go here, the more reward you claim - but it takes months, not everyone has that patience :)

Lvl 3 cloth: this requires 2 lvl 1 cloth, 2 fashion cores and 1 luck charm. The reward is 1 fashion core, a pack, and 10 mount whips, and 150k gold. If we suppose you did not buy cloth just for this, and you have them already anyway "for free", your total gain here is -337 balens.

lvl 4 cloth: requires 2 lvl 3 cloth, and 2 luck charm. The reward is 400K Gold, fashion core x2, luck charm x1, pack x2. If we count only the luck charms, your total gain here is +286 balens.

lvl 5 cloth: requires 2 lvl 4 cloth, 4 x luck charm. Reward is 800K gold, fashion core x4, good luck charm x2, pack x5. If we don't count the cloth, your gain is +611 balens.

As you see, you make a better and better deal. But ONLY if you had free cloth, and did not combine multiple of the lower levels to be ableto make it. Please note that when combining clothes, there is a chance you get something you don't get, which gives extra BR (and worth) via identify.

Examples:
Example 1. you have a bunch of level 1 helmet, fashion cores, and 2 luck charm. You should make 2 lvl 2 helm, then a lvl 3 helm. You should not go for lvl 4, since you do not get the bonus for the lvl 3 again, so your loss would be -674 vs +286.

Example 2. You have a lvl 3 helm which you made during previous tailoring, and all he above. You should make a lvl 3 and a lvl 4 helm.

Example 3. You have a lvl 4 helm you made during the previous synthesis, you also wear a lvl 4 helm, and you have a bunch of lvl 1. You should make only one lvl 5. You will get the reward for lvl 3 and lvl 4 as well. Save the lvl 1 for the next event.

Please note that you should NOT make cloth combines just to upgrade your cloth. +2 rage worth nothing.

Wings 

Wing are an expensive deal. Lvl 3 cost 5, lvl 4 cost 10, lvl 5 cost 20, lvl 6 40 good luck charms. As long as good luck charms don't selll especially cheap, and you can't get free wings, wing tailoring doesn't worth the deal at higher level. Make a level 3 wing first tailoring. Then make a lvl 3 next tailoring. Then make a lvl 4 one month later, etc. but ONLY IF you have the good luck charms from some event (don't buy them for 400 balens piece).

Beam of Light exchange

The Beam of Light even is over soon, so here is my opinion on what to exchange them for. 

50k kyanite worth approx. 33 balens, so here you get 6.6 balens per Beam.


40 crystals worth 16 balens, so here you get 1.6 balens per Beam.


2 Fashion cores worth 540 balens (usual sale price*), so here you get 41 balens per Beam.
* Please note that with the recent Violet exchange event, you could get Fashion Cores even cheaper.

40 sepu worth 200 balens, so here you get 10 balens per Beam.

A cloth worth 300 balens, so here you get 10 balens per Beam.


A wing is sold for 1600 balens (I dont say it worth that much) so here you get 20 balens per beam.


A +40 mount worth 8k balens, so here you get 40 balens per Beam.



There are a few things you can notice. Even without doing the usual math, you would think that Sunshine Pack's value is far above 35 balens. Well: it's exactly 42.41 balens, but that's just an average value, and suppose that you bought 500 chests and got exactly 1 Cloud Sailor. If you were unlucky and don't get a sailor, your average value will be only 26.41. So although it looks great, it's not so. (you can bet 7road employs a few really good mathematicians).

Second is about the Fashion core. We can say that the Fashion core's value was simply reduced from 400 to 270. This was a logical step, since now you need a lot more for clothing refinement. At 400 apiece, it didn't worth it. At 270, it was okay if we still say we are willing to pay 10 balen per +1 BR. However, there was a violet box exchange recently. Based on Cosmos statstics, you could get 3.5 violet essence per box, so 1 essence cost 7 balens which means 1 Fashion Core cost only 140 balens. If we suppose the Volet exchange event will be back in the future, the Sunshine Packs worth even less.

Thirdly, do not forget about my previous post on prices getting cheaper and cheaper. This event was a fine example. Mount and cloth was cheaper than before, boxes were better value. Let's hope this trend keeps up :)

Conclusion: if you were a casher, you should have gone for the Cloud Sailor, it was a good buy. If you are a free player, you should definitely exchange your Beams for Fashion Cores. I do not recommend buying cloth: the glistering set is sold for 900 balens just 2 months after you could get them for expensive event pieces. These will be for sale soon.