Anniversary chest - worth it?

Here is a short analysis of the current "2nd anniversary" chest and shard exchange.

First, let's see what's the best deal from shards:

x1 for 50,000 Gold: 1 balen / shard

x5 for Crystal Shard x200: 16 balens / shard

x20 for Mahra x40: 20 balens / shard

x20 for Sylph Sepulcrum x40: 20 balens / shard

x20 for Star Sand x100: 0 balen / shard

x20 for Star Tear Shard x10: 1 balen / shard

x20 for Divinity Shard x20: 10 balens / shard

x200 for Chubby Guinea Pig Card x1: 30 balens / shard

x450 for Apollo/Hades (Blue) x1: 17 balens / shard


Obivously, your best deal is the mount - if manage to gather 200 shards. For that, you need to spend 15.600 balens. Not recommended, since this mount will be for sale later for 6000 balens. You might hope that you will be lucky... but you won't. If you have less shards, you should exchange for mahra (if you still need a purple sylph) or sepulcrum (otherwise).

Now let's see how much a chest worth - maybe the other goodies round up it's value?
(calculation method is the usual, we multiply chances by the individual values and summarize them)

2nd Anniversary Shard x1:  30 balens x 0.5 = 15
80,000 Gold: 1.6 balen x 0.12 = 0.192
Star Sand x10: 0 balen
Star Tear Shard x1: 2 balens x 0.12 = 0.24
Crystal Shard x50: 20 balens x 0.12 = 2.4
1,000,000 Gold: 20 balens x 0.007 = 0.14
Sylph Sepulcrum x100: 1000 balens x 0.007 = 7
Mahra x100: 1000 balens x 0.007 = 7
Chubby Guinea Pig Card x1: 6000 balens x 0.001 = 6

Also, if you get a mount, in that case a shard worth only 20 balens, so we can calculate only with either 15+..+0 or 10+...+6.

expected total value: 10+0.192+0.24+2.4+0.14+7+7+6 = 32.97

DO NOT BUY.

A very bad deal, the chest itself worth less than it's cost, and that assumes average luck, getting a mount etc. If you are unlucky, you will be literally ripped off.



If I were running Wartune, I would celebrate an anniversary with much more generosity. And I would make more money in the process :) A nice recharge promotion, combined with a big spender, and a real sale with some true discounts, cupped with a mount whip event which rewards anniversary shards would sound much better than this. Making players happy should be a priority over making scams like the above, on the long term it brings more profit.