Atoll Conqueror's Pack analysis

Here is my usual analysis of the current Wartune gamble, "Atoll Conqueror's Pack". Please note that although the name and content suggests that this pack has something to do with sylph, there is no track of divinity shards, as if the developers forgot about this item (or, rather, want to work up the price of it when they finally add it).

What's the best exchange?

1 balen / shard

6 balens / shard

1.6 balen / shard

25 balens / shard

20 balens / shard

20 balens / shard*

(* normally, I assign 300 balen value for A-B clothes they sell in packs, but these are S quality so I assigned double price) 

25 balens / shard

30 balens / shard

As you see, most exchanges are of similar value (just stay away from kyanite / resist shards) so you can't make a bad deal here. However, I would still advise against fashion cores. These you can get for free from the wild shop, and they are really cheap from "old leather" type events. So I would go for clothes first from the free boxes, and if they give so many that you still have shards to spend, get sepulcrum.

Now let's see if it's a good deal to buy extra boxes for balens so you can have the mount as well:

spirit shard: 25 x 0.5 = 12.5 balens

80k gold: 1.6 x 0.12 = 0.192 balen

2x sepulcrum : 20 x 0.12 = 2.4 balens

2x mahra: 10 x 0.12 = 1.2 balen

3x mount whip: 6 x 0.12 = 0.72 balen

1M gold: 20 x 0.007 = 0.14 balen

100x runestone: 200 x 0.007 = 1.4 balen

100x mahra: 500 x 0.007 = 3.5 balens

chimera: 8000 x 0.001 = 8 balens

expected value: 12.5+0.192+2.4+1.2+0.72+0.14+1.4+3.5+8 = 30.052 balens

A very bad deal for 39 balens. Do not buy. Not even if you are a cloth collector: remember, the cloth will be for sale later anyway.

If they would have included divinity shards in either the atoll pack or the exchange (instead of having it as a rare? drop in the limited 25 balen boxes), at least some people would buy this pack. But this way, Wartune will remain without significant income for another 12 days...