2014/07/17

Overlord Descent analysis

Before going into details, we have a few questions: do you need Hades or Apollo? Do you need divinity shards to evolve Hades or Apollo? How much are you willing to pay for  these?

I already mentioned earlier that assigning a value to Hades or Apollo is very difficult. You can find a detailed calculation of Hades value here. It's approx. 8000 balens. Apollo is more widely used than Hades, but it was also more easy to get (previous event the cost of Apollo was about third of the current!!) So for simplicity, I set Apollo's value to 8000 as well.

If you don't need Apollo or Hades, you will just change them back for 1125 imperial shards, 1000 soul shards and 400 mount whips. In this case, Apollo/Hades worth only 1300 balens for you.

Divinity shard is a new item. You need 500 to evolve your Apollo/Hades. I think that most of you cashers need this item. Question is: how much balen would you pay for the 500 divinity shard to evolve your Apollo / Hades? For me, 10k balens is the absolute maximum. So to me, 1 divinity shard = 20 balens. Set your own limit and calculate with that.


Ok, now let's see the balen value of Imperial Shards:


Imperial Shard x1 for 10,000 Gold: 0.2 balen / shard


Imperial Shard x5 for 10,000 Kyanite: 1.3 balen / shard


Imperial Shard x50 for Mount Training Whip x25: 1 balen / shard


Imperial Shard x50 for Runestone x25: 2.5 balens / shard




Imperial Shard x100 for Divinity Shard x20:  4 balens / shard


Imperial Shard x2250 for Apollo Seal (Blue) x1: 3.5 balens / shard if you need apollo; 1.1 balen / shard otherwise



Imperial Shard x2250 for Hades Seal (Blue) x1: 3.5 balens / shard if you need apollo; 1.1 balen / shard otherwise


Not looking very good! Your best exchange is divinity shards - but of course, only if you are willing to buy enough to get all the 500. To get 500, you need to buy an average of 800 chests (which gets you 2000 imperial shards = 400 divinity shars, 8x rare loot: 10 divinity shards = 80 divinity shards). If you are lucky and you get an apollo/hades you don't need from the first 400 chests, you can exchange it back for 1125 imperial shards, in that case 400 chest is enough. So depending on luck, you need to spend 15-30k balens!!! 

Buying Apollo / Hades for shards is not looking good either. If you are not lucky (and happened it to a lot of people in previous gambles) you need to buy 900 chests! 36k balen for something that worth 8k balens.

Now, let's see if it worth gambling (ie., buying just a few chests and hope to be lucky):
Imperial chest value (calculation as usual):
Imperial Shard x5 (50%): 0.5 x 20 = 10 balens
80,000 Gold: 0.12 x 1.6 = 0.19 balen
Mount Training Whip x2: 0.12 x 4 = 0.48 balen
Fate Stone x2: 0.12 x 20 = 2.4 balens
Soul Crystal x20: 0.12 x 10 = 1.2 balen
Soul Crystal x500: 0.01 x 250 = 2.5 balens
Divinity Shard x10: 0.01 x 200 = 2 balens
Hades (Blue) x1: 0.001 x 8000 = 8 balens (if you need Hades)
0.001 x 1300 = 1.3 balen (if you don't need)
Apollo (Blue) x1: 0.001 x 8000 = 8 balens (if you need Apollo)
0.001 x 1300 = 1.3 balen (if you don't need)

If you need both Hades and Apollo and fate stones:
Total value: 10 + 0.19 + 0.48 + 2.4 + 1.2 + 2.5 + 2 + 8 + 8 = 34.77 balens

If you need only Apollo or Hades:
Total value: 25.67 balens

If you need neither Apollo nor Hades:
Total value: 18.97 balens

As you see, the only case when you should gambe buying a few chests is when you are a relatively new player, and need both Apollo and Hades. Still, this is an extremely bad value chest compared to previous ones. (But even if you buy, do not do it before the big spender event goes active!)

To others, who look only for Divinity chests: a game company is trying to charge you 300 USD just for a few colorful pixels. Don't be a fool, don't fall to it. It will be cheaper soon, and if not - let the few whales play out their Aegis in the CW finals, it doesn't mean a difference elsewhere if you have it or not. Certainly not for so much money. Now I go back play Doomlord, at least not getting scammed there...

DO NOT BUY.

2 comments:

  1. this is great. as usual. I couldn't find ANYTHING good about this event. I don't have Apollo OR Hades but I have spent a fair bit of balens (~80k total in past events) trying to get one of them and have had very bad luck. I don't see a benefit in trying to get either one of them right now. I will get divinity shards for that one glorious day when I can actually get one of them

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    Replies
    1. Thanks! Same here, I tried to get Hades when it was available first time, bought 200 boxes bot got nothing, so I gave up on it.

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