2015/03/02

Lucky rabbit analysis

Finished my lucky rabbit analysis. I know it's the last possible moment, I hope it is still useful for some :) I used the calculations of new item values I made here.

First of all, let's see the expected value IF you open these "chests". I was in a big trouble here. I had no statistics whatsoever :( So I had to make assumptions based on previous chest. So this data is not exact, just a guess: the best I could come up with.
As you see, it's pretty good value - but you can expect it since you need to open 4 chinese II chests to get one of these (hope you didn't spend balens to buy those!). As you can see, the value of coin of ancestry has skyrocketed: now you can exchange 4 for 80 vulcan packs, making one coin worth 600 balens! I think this is the best buy sincs the 2000 balen coupon. 

Now let's see what we can exchange for it:
The qty column is the required number of lucky rabbits, the value is how much balen the given item worth. As you can see, most exchanges are very poor :( If you have 200, you should go for the horse. But I think this is a quite unlikely situation. It can happen only if you bought a lot of chests (which could have been a very bad deal). The second best exchange is far the divinity souls. Please note that the expected value for opening chests and exchanging for divinity souls is the same. I recommend opening the chests - simply because you can get lucky and get the horse or a coin or two.

Some might consider getting blessing of light / gift of god. I do not recommend it, they are too expensive. I'm sure we shall be able to get these cheaper eventually. (Just remember the gem event where you could get 50 blesing of god each day!)

4 comments:

  1. I've been checking your blog five times everyday to see if you've post a new analysis for the masks. I got so anxious so I decided to make my own.

    I opened 43 boxes on another toon (my game husband who quit playing and gave me his login) and got the following:

    80k gold =2
    whips x4 =10
    hoof x2 =6
    fashion shard x3 =9
    lvl 3 refine crystal x20 =6
    soul seal x2 =4
    sc x100 =2
    vulcan pack x40 =0
    coin x1 =4
    lvl 5 resist crystal =0
    cloth =0

    It's a small sample size, and I got pretty lucky with 4 coins. So this statistic would say open the boxes. But I know this might not be typical outcome. So if I also made analysis on the exchange as well.

    lvl 1-5 gem pack x10 - 5 masks. At 3 balens per gem pack, each mask is worth 6 balens
    soul crystals x 500 - 5 masks. Already maxed sc, so this exchange is worthless.
    fashion core x1 - 5 masks. At 200 balens per fashion core, each mask is worth 40 balens
    Runestone x40 - 5 masks. At 2 balens per runestone, each mask is worth 16 balens
    sepul x10 - 5 masks. At 5 balens per sepul, each mask is worth 10 balens
    mahra x10 - 5 masks. 10 balens per mask
    crystal shards x1000 - 7 masks. At .2 balens per shard, each mask is worth 28.5 balens
    will crystal shards x150 - 7 masks. At 1.2 balens per shard, each mask is worth 25.7 balens
    fashion core x2 - 10 masks. 40 balens per mask
    glc x2 - 10 masks. 20 balens per mask
    sylph equipment enchant pack x3 - 10 masks. Nothing to me
    vulcan packs x7 -25 masks. At 30 balens per pack, each mask is worth 8.4 balens
    A cloth - 30 masks. A clothing is worth 300 balens, so 10 balens per mask
    A wings - 150 masks. Even at 2000 balens for wing, each mask is only worth 13 balens.

    So looks like the best exchange here would be either fashion core, crystal shards or will crystal shards. I would say fashion core if you still have a lot of unrefined cloths. But if most of your cloths are already refined to at least 2 stars, then the crystal shards or will crystal shards.

    What do you think?

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    Replies
    1. I did make statistics an exchange analysis, just did not have the time to post it. I have to admit your analysis is very good, and pretty close to my result! For me, fashion core lost it's shine a bit, since it can be fished, and got a truckload with each cloth synthesis. But yes, your conslusion is perfect, exchange is either core/luck charm or crystal shard whichever you need more. Will post my analyis soon and write more details :) Thx for the below stats, I add them to mine.

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  2. I opened another 70 on my toon. But I probably wont open more since I got both of the helment and armor. I'll save the rest for now until I hear your analysis. Here's what I got.


    80k gold =7
    whips x4 =11
    hoof x2 =11
    fashion shard x3 =9
    lvl 3 refine crystal x20 =6
    soul seal x2 =9
    sc x100 =12
    vulcan pack x40 =0
    coin x1 =3
    lvl 5 resist crystal =0
    cloth =2 (1 armor, 1 helment)

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