Glass slippers and Paper cuttings

Obviously, Wartune has changed the way the chest-gamble works. Previously, you got an event shard + a random item from each chest. If you were lucky, you could get the rare treasure. If you weren't, you could still exchange it for the event shards. Not anymore. With the new system, you either open the chest, or exchange it directly. Personally, I like the change, because now people can't complain anymore that "X got lucky by opening 3 chests and me not by opening 200". Now it's your decision if you go gamble-mode or safe-mode. Also it's good because now you have to be smart to make the right decision. But, I also admit, that with this current system, you get less reward in average. So far, this is not a big tragedy, since we get  a lot more free chest than before. 

I already published an analysis about pumpkin carriage. My advice was to open the chests and gamble instead of doing the exchange - at least until you got a full cloth set - because the expected value is much better this way. Now the game gets more complicated with Valentine chests which give a glass slipper or a pumpkin carriage, and with the chinese new year chest which can either give those or a "paper cutting." So what's the optimal strategy now?


Unlike pumpkins, glass slippers can give you mounts. Mounts are usually the highest priority goal in chest events, since they give the most BR, and they are unique items which you can't get from other sources. So here, I recommend a different strategy.


First of all, Wartune was nice enough to give the free Valentine day's packs, including a Royal Steed. And they were even nicer to allow us to exchange the Royal Steed for a bunch of glass slippers. So if you had the Royal Steed, you could grab now the Chimera as well. Getting 235 more crystals for the Persian cat is more difficult, and depends entirely on your resources.


Lately, I used all my coins of ancestry to get mount whips. So I had 7000 whips to use, also had 2 mounts I got free since last hoof event, so I got 170 glass slippers. Now there are 2 options:
Use the glass slippers, and hope for persian cat (0,1% chance) or an apollo seal (which I can exchange for more glass slippers), or try to collect the 235.

I decided to do the following:
1. Try to get as many glass slippers with the current mount events. This included exchanging my amethyst for whips, and exchanging all remaining pumpkins for whips as well.
2. Save up the glass slippers and see how much I can get. The event still runs for 14 days, cloth event or anything else might come.
3. If, at the end, I miss only like 10-20 glass slippers, I buy them, good value for a +40 mount. If I miss more, I open the glass slippers, and hope for my luck.

Update: gem synthesise event tomorrow, so we can get a lot of free chests (hope you saved up the gems you get for valentin event).